Middle East and North Africa
MENA Political and Economic Forecast
By John Drake Friday, May 18, 2012LONDON – The AKE Intelligence department has issued new analysis on a number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa. The findings have been published on Global IntAKE – AKE’s worldwide risk analysis website.
The department predicts economic growth in Kuwait, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates, but the Eurozone crisis will have a knock-on effect on several economies.
Israel will continue to threaten Iran with military action against its nuclear programme, but it is less likely that a full military attack will take place this year.
In Morocco agricultural shortages coupled with promised pay increases and a fall in exports to the Eurozone will lower the outlook. Tourist visitors and worker remittances from Europe are also expected to fall.
Eurozone instability is expected to limit GDP growth in the UAE, although the overall economy is likely to remain relatively resilient. Growth is expected to strengthen in the longer term.
With oil prices set to remain high, Kuwait is set to experience solid economic growth in the next year.
The Lebanese economy is similarly set to see growth at the same above-average levels witnessed since 2006. Nonetheless, further clashes are expected in Tripoli despite the presence of troops who will continue to try and separate the districts of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen.
The rest of the country will remain largely unaffected, although there may be an increased state of lawlessness on the border with Syria, where kidnapping and abduction may become more of a problem.
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John Drake, Senior Risk Consultant, AKE Ltd.
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