Security dynamics in East Asia

Bad Relations Cloud Asian Political Risk Outlook

LONDON - The AKE intelligence department is tracking worsening diplomatic relations in several hotspots from the Middle East to East Asia. The findings have been published on Global IntAKE – AKE’s worldwide risk analysis website.

As relations between China and the Philippines continue to deteriorate, there is a growing likelihood of further sanctions being imposed by both countries on certain commodities. The US-Philippine military relationship is also likely to become more deeply consolidated.

Further sanctions are likely to be imposed on Iran by the US following the Senate approval of a bill to tighten financial restrictions on the Revolutionary Guard. The oil sector is also likely to be targeted which is expected to have more of an impact on markets in East Asia. The move comes despite the latest UN discussions in Baghdad over the future of the Iranian nuclear programme.

AKE believes Pyongyang looks increasingly likely to enact a defiant underground nuclear test over the coming months. That being said, AKE Asia Pacific analyst Brittany Damora believes that as the situation currently stands, recent developments in the DPRK are unlikely to have any significant impact upon security dynamics in East Asia.

“The failed rocket launch in April demonstrates that North Korea is far away from successfully conducting nuclear tests that can be deemed threatening” according to Damora, ”the recent threats against South Korea and the seizure of 29 Chinese fishermen in May 2012 suggest that North Korea is actually grappling for attention.”

In contrast to all of the above AKE expects an economic resurgence in Burma, which will continue to draw attention from foreign firms hoping to capitalise on the country’s growth.

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AKE Intelligence Most recent columns AKE Intelligence is based in the Lloyd’s Building in London. Our team of worldwide regional specialists provide political and security risk analysis, forecasting and mitigation advice on countries around the world. Analyst Contact: the AKE Intelligence Department, +44 (0) 207 816 5454 Founded in 1991 by Andrew Kain, AKE provides security, intelligence and risk-mitigation services to insurance, shipping, engineering and energy sectors, as well as supporting NGOs and the news media in hostile environments. AKE Intelligence can be reached at: .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)